Dynasty league football start-up mock draft: JaMarr Chase goes No. 1, two rookies in the top four

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For this final edition of my preseason mock draft series we changed things up just a bit. Yes, I once again teamed up with fellow members of The Athletic crew and industry marvels for a 1QB, half-PPR mock draft on Sleeper Fantasy Football. But this time, it’s a dynasty start-up exercise. As always, I’ll dissect the draft into three segments: Early (1-4), middle (5-9), and late rounds (10-15), analyzing the draft and discussing my evolving strategy based on the draft board.

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Participants:

  • Eric Romoff — Green Screens Media, In-Between Media
  • Zach Berger — Fantasy in Frames
  • Shane Barrett — Rotoheat, Redzone Redemption
  • Bob Harris — Football Diehards
  • LaDarius Brown — Sportskeeda
  • Jeremy Popielarz — FTN
  • Nate Polvogt — Dynasty Diehards
  • Brandon Funston — The Athletic
  • Alex Korff — Draft Sharks
  • Dustin Ludke — Dynasty Pros, Dynasty Nerds
  • Jay Felicio — The Athletic, Front Yard Fantasy
  • Kraig Rueth — RotoHeat

Note: The roster settings were as follows: 1 QB | 2 RB| 3 WR| 1 TE | 1 Flex | 7 Bench

Early Rounds

Analysis:

The first two players off the board in a 1QB dynasty draft are as predictable as what happens shortly after eating Taco Bell (I’m not hating, it’s just facts). While the order may be shocking to some, I like Eric’s decision to go with Ja’Marr Chase over Justin Jefferson. Chase has the more secure future, with Joe Burrow locked in as his quarterback for the foreseeable future. Justin Jefferson is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, but who’s under center for the Vikings after Kirk Cousins? He’s 35 years old, which is ancient in football terms (it hurts to type that with my 37th birthday right around the corner). With that being said, Zach had to be ecstatic to land Jefferson with the second pick.

The early rounds were, not surprisingly, wide receiver heavy, but there was an early run on running backs with Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Christian McCaffrey going No. 3-5. I don’t mind Shane and Bob’s picks of Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs — they have the youth, talent, and situation for the move to pay off. But I’m not a fan of LaDarius taking CMC at 1.05. For it to pay off, he’ll have to draft a win-now team and push for the championship in Year 1. His next three picks of Saquon Barkley, DK Metcalf, and Amari Cooper set LaDarius up to do just that.

My Strategy:

I knew I was going after a wide receiver, possibly even two, with my first two picks. The shelf life isn’t there to make it worth drafting but a handful of running backs early in dynasty. I landed Tyreek Hill, who’s right in the middle of his prime, and A.J. Brown is entering the beginning of his. There is some concern that Hill will retire in three years like he’s said, but even if he does, those years will be elite. I can’t justify taking a running back not named Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of either of them.

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One of the main differences in dynasty 1QB versus redraft is where you’ll see the quarterbacks go off the board. There is an edge to be had by rostering an elite quarterback that makes the earlier pick worth it in dynasty. While I wasn’t going to take one with my first two picks, getting Joe Burrow at 3.11 lands me a top-tier talent who locks up my quarterback position for the next 6-10 years.

Middle Rounds

Analysis:

Bob Harris got the best mix of elite upside with value, landing Trevor Lawrence in the fifth round. He balanced his aggressive youth start (Gibbs and Chris Olave) with veteran discounts in Calvin Ridley and Derrick Henry. Stacks are even more fun in dynasty, and Lawrence to Ridley will produce early and often for Bob. I also love that Jeremy was able to snag Deshaun Watson in the ninth round. He’s not the long-term piece that Lawrence is but has just as much upside in the short term. Jeremy crushed the middle rounds, landing killer value on Diontae Johnson and Treylon Burks. Johnson is due for some positive touchdown regression, and Burks is being pushed too far down draft boards with Hopkins in town. Both are favorites of mine.

The running backs who Funston was able to land in the middle rounds are precisely the reason why I’m targeting wide receivers early in dynasty drafts. He’s set at receiver with CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba but will compete immediately with Rhamondre Stevenson and Aaron Jones — he also acquired some youth with the undervalued Zach Charbonnet. He’ll be the primary back in Seattle before the season’s end. While Shane’s start of Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Najee Harris is easily the best running back corps in the league, he’s weak at receiver. I’d like his team a lot more if he’d drafted Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, or Zay Flowers over Dallas Goedert.

My Strategy:

 Even though I didn’t draft a running back in the first four rounds, I kept attacking wide receiver. I preferred the youth and upside of Jordan Addison, as well as the value and consistency of Chris Godwin, to the running backs who were going in the same range. I then went back-to-back-to-back running back in rounds 7-9, landing two backs with a good mix of risk and upside in Rachaad White and Khalil Herbert and a veteran who will see a ton of volume this year in James Conner. Running back is undoubtedly the weak spot on my roster, but those three will offer enough production for me to compete for a championship in Year 1.

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Late Rounds

Analysis:

 The picks in the late rounds of dynasty drafts generally look one of two ways. Either a great value on a veteran with limited time left in the league (ex: Nate getting Adam Thielen in the 12th, Alex getting Odell Beckham in the 11th) or taking shots on upside. Since Kraig took the veteran value early in the draft, it makes sense that most of his late-round picks are upside plays like Justyn Ross and John Metchie. If you don’t mind only having a player for a year or two in dynasty, there are great values to be had with late-round veteran picks.

There is still value to be had by waiting on quarterback in a 1QB league, even in dynasty. LaDarius loaded up on skill position talent in the early and middle rounds and was still able to get two quarterbacks who finished as QB10 (Daniel Jones) and QB15 (Jared Goff) on a points-per-game basis in 2022. Danny Dimes still has the upside to jump into the top 5-7 fantasy quarterbacks if he continues to grow under Brian Daboll.

My Strategy:

I decided to go for upside in the later rounds, and that’s generally my strategy in any draft. Safe, value players are nice, but at this point in the draft, I want to take as many shots as possible on players who could be difference-makers. Five of my final six picks were rookies, and the sixth was second-year quarterback Sam Howell. Tyjae Spears is a player I’m getting everywhere I can in both redraft and dynasty. The Titans backfield still belongs to King Henry, but there is a lot of tread worn off those tires, and father time comes for all of us. If Spears gets an opportunity to be the lead back, he’s immediately an RB2 with upside for more.

Here’s how my team shook out:

I’m thrilled with the team I drafted. It will compete for a championship in Year 1, has some depth with mid-round veterans Godwin and Conner, yet still has enough youth to have staying power for years to come.

Full Draft Board: Link

I asked the participants a variety of questions in regards to the mock and their draft strategy in general.

Q. How does your draft strategy differ in 1QB leagues from dynasty compared to redraft?

Harris: I’m looking to secure some high-end rookie talent fairly early. In this draft, once I missed out on Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase (not rookies, but young enough) and Bijan Robinson, I went with a rookie I love in Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s an aggressive pick, but I’m not sure in a dynasty draft that he’d made it back to me in Round 2. I’m not entirely sure he would in redraft at this point. But generally speaking, I’m looking for a mix of youth with a solid dose of productive veterans — with the emphasis on younger players.

Brown: In 1QB leagues, I don’t necessarily feel the pressure to go after QBs within the first couple of rounds. There’s excellent value down the draft while you stack up on skill positions with greater value.

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Funston: I like to take a three-year-out view for my early rounds — do I feel like I have a shot to get relatively stable production from the player drafted for the next three seasons. And I lean into wide receivers because they just have more long-term bankability than running backs. I honestly haven’t done a dynasty draft in a long time, but one thing that popped into the back of my mind is that if I just took a one-year view, it’d be really easy to build an immediate title contender just targeting those still strong veterans who fell because their future isn’t so certain beyond the next season or two. In this draft, one could have easily built a starting roster of Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry at RB, Cooper Kupp (or Davante Adams), and two out of the trio of Deebo Samuel, Tyler Lockett and Terry McLaurin at receiver, George Kittle at TE, Aaron Jones in a FLEX spot and take your pick at QB from Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers (to name a few) — I don’t know about 2024 and beyond, but that’s a 2023 title contender in a 12-team league.

Barrett: I think for dynasty I may look at WRs earlier. Usually I’m heavy RB in 1QB leagues, no matter what, but with dynasty, especially with the available young WRs, I’ll look that way earlier than in redraft.

Ludke: In redraft I’m OK waiting for a high floor player. In dynasty I want high upside players who are young. I want a cornerstone in dynasty. I don’t want to be playing the streaming game. I’ll leave that for redraft.

Q. What’s your approach to balancing immediate success with long-term sustainability in a dynasty league?

Romoff: Contrary to popular opinion, I don’t believe that a dynasty roster should be managed toward a binary outcome of either “win now” or “rebuild.” My approach to building a dynasty roster has a heavy emphasis on acquiring young talent. Younger players always hold more value in the market of your dynasty league than their counterparts on the other end of the career spectrum but rookies specifically often carry league-winning upside that can often be ruled out for more established players. With this approach I have a young core that I can build around in a 2-3 year window but also hold the necessary assets to infuse my roster with veteran talent should the youngsters reach their full potential.

Polvogt: In dynasty, I am a believer that you should always be in win-now mode during the season. That forces me to be active in the offseason to acquire depth and youth while maintaining a solid corps of veterans. It’s all about balance.

Popielarz: It is a fine art to balance your roster with youth and veteran assets, but it is perfection when done correctly. I tend to play dynasty in three-year windows as projecting much further is impossible. So the only players I avoid are the ones I predict to have less than three years of production left. Later in the draft, I may pivot off this if a significant value pick falls to me.

Rueth: Generally I try to have a young team that can hopefully contend now but should also be set for the future. Here I went older to start with veterans who fell just based on age. I balanced it out later and feel I have a great shot in Year 1, and nice pieces who could develop later.

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Korff: I’m always trying to win. Rebuilding is for losers. Just make smart decisions.

Q. If your draft was a superhero or comic character, who would it be and why?

Romoff: The Blue Beetle, cause I went WR heavy and their stickers on Sleeper are blue. (wipes hands in self-satisfaction)

Polvogt: I’m Deadpool — whacky, unpredictable and I always shoot my shot and try to come out on top. You might laugh at my ugly deformed face(draft) now, but you won’t be laughing when I destroy you.

Harris: Deadpool. This team cannot be killed.

Popielarz: Spiderman. This roster may be underestimated but is secretly one of the better ones.

Rueth: The Comedian from The Watchmen. It is old enough that most would think it is a joke and soon to be dead.

Brown: I’d say Batman because there’s the Bruce Wayne aspect (drafting players who have some style and flash) and then there’s Batman (players who I know will protect me week in and week out).

Funston: I’d have to go with Harvey Dent aka Two-Face. I’ll admit that I had to deal with some distractions from family members during the second half of this draft, and my picks started going off the rails — for example, taking Juwan Johnson as a second TE instead of rookie RB Tyjae Spears, Dak Prescott as an auto-pick when I already had Josh Allen … I love the first half of my draft, but the second half is very ugly. So, yeah, Two-Face it is.

Barrett: Thanos, because I was collecting RBs like Infinity Stones.

Korff: Hancock. He was drunk a lot.

Ludke: Aquaman. He doesn’t get the fanfare of Superman or Batman but, when you break it down, he has just as cool, if not cooler, powers. When done right, he outshines those guys.

Felicio: Iron Man. Under the armor of high end wide receivers is a flashy but talented leader (Joe Burrow). While there are some flaws (RB Depth, will Kyle Pitts ever develop), all the pieces are there to be the best.

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Q. What’s your favorite TV series of all time?

Romoff: Shows like Breaking Bad, Severance, and The Bear have absolutely drawn me in over the years but I guess the tie-breaker has to be staying power. The Sopranos was an excellent watch when it first premiered and is one of the few series I’ve gone back to several times over. I know there are some who didn’t love the ending but the more I’ve gone back to the show, the more I’ve grown to appreciate its final scene.

Polvogt: If you’re gonna make me pick one, I have to say it’s probably Dexter. There was something about his admittedly dark pursuit of justice that I identified with. A lot of people did.

Harris: Breaking Bad was the show that finally made me think it was as smart as me. Can’t say that about many series (although this show started a trend in that direction).

Popielarz: The Office

Brown: Ozark because I love the growth of a character because it gives a show longevity. Also, the acting was amazing and told an amazing story.

Funston: Community — This was agonizing for me — I actually listed out 32 possible contenders! Ultimately, I had to go with a sit-com because of the rewatchability factor, so it was between my big five: Community, Seinfeld, Modern Family, The Office and Arrested Development. It really could be any of them depending on the day you catch me.

Barrett: The Walking Dead

Korff: Breaking Bad

Ludke: I’m a big fan of Psych. Still holds up after all these years.

Felicio: There are so many different ways I could go with this. The Simpsons, The Office, Parks and Rec all helped shape my sense of humor. I loved the early seasons of The Walking Dead, but it fell off bad. It really comes down to two shows for me, Sons of Anarchy and Dexter. Season 4 of Dexter is the best season of any show I’ve ever watched, so that gives Dexter the edge over SoA for my favorite of all time.

(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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